The Chip Witch Blog

17.06.2025 at 17:50:24 UTC

Type	Jun 17	Jun 18	Jun 19
Active	35%	35%	35%
Minor	20%	20%	20%
Moderate	5%	10%	5%
Strong	1%	1%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	3.00	3.33	3.33
03-06UT	3.67	3.00	2.00
06-09UT	2.67	2.00	2.00
09-12UT	3.00	2.33	3.00
12-15UT	2.33	2.67	3.00
15-18UT	2.33	3.33	3.33
18-21UT	3.33	4.00	3.33
21-00UT	3.33	4.33	3.33
Solar Activity
Solar activity was at moderate levels with a M1.1 flare, peaking at 16/1455 UTC, and a few C-class flares, including a C9.9 from beyond the east limb at 17/0621 UTC. A CME associated with a C5.5 flare at 17/0021 UTC was modelled with the ejecta potentially resulting in a glancing blow early on 20 June. No additional Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters continued to display signs of CH HSS as Earth remains geoeffective with the large positive polarity CH in the southern hemisphere. Total field (Bt) remained around 7-10 nT with the north-south (Bz) component oscillating between +8 and -5 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged 470-520 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.