The Chip Witch Blog

18.06.2025 at 16:45:03 UTC

Type	Jun 18	Jun 19	Jun 20
Active	35%	35%	25%
Minor	20%	20%	35%
Moderate	10%	5%	15%
Strong	1%	1%	5%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	3.33	3.67	2.33
03-06UT	3.00	3.33	4.33
06-09UT	2.00	2.00	5.00
09-12UT	2.33	3.00	4.33
12-15UT	2.67	1.67	3.33
15-18UT	3.33	1.67	3.33
18-21UT	4.00	2.67	2.33
21-00UT	4.33	2.33	3.67
Solar Activity
Solar activity reached high levels with an X1.2/2b flare at 17/2149 UTC from Region 4114 (N18W19, Ekc/beta-gamma). The Palehua observatory reported a 10cm radio burst of 200 sfu with this event. Region 4114 remains the largest, most complex region on the disk, although it no longer appears to be exhibiting a delta signature. Region 4115 (N20W08, Eso/beta-gamma) grew in length and also produced a few flares. Region 4117 was numbered as it rotated into view on the east limb and produced an M1.5 flare at 18/0000 UTC.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a positive polarity CH HSS regime. Total field (Bt) remained around 7-9 nT with the north-south (Bz) component oscillating between +6 and -6 nT. Solar wind speeds primarily averaged 450-510 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation.
Energetic Particle
Due to continued influence from the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS), the greater than 2 MeV electron flux on the GOES-19 satellite reached the 1000 pfu threshold at 17/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.